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Opening: Program Thesis
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Introduction

The Hispanic Engagement Program.

Over the last 10 years, Hispanics have been on the move. Searching for a home for their conservative values. But conservatives have not mobilized to welcome them. The Hispanic Engagement Program is a turnkey, proven solution for c3s, c4s, and 527s to play separate but equally important roles in welcoming them to the movement.

Introduction

A history of programs that create unique impact.

2021

Identified UNIQUE impact opportunities:

Engagement with
Key Demographics
Voter
Registration
Ballot Chasing
GA 2022

HAFA did Voter Registration and Hispanic Engagement in GA.

GA
2024

THF and HAFA expanded to Voter Registration and Hispanic Engagement in GA and AZ.

AZ GA

Introduction

2026 is a new world.

Voter Registration won’t have the same unique impact—it’s more expensive and less exclusive.

Heritage Action’s program is structured to target and turn out Hispanic conservative voters in this year’s election and beyond.

Separately, The Heritage Foundation will conduct a nonpartisan effort to increase civic engagement and educate voters on key issues.

Voter Registration
Less unique impact in 2026
1

The fear factor is gone.

In 2022 and 2024, conservative non-voters were very scared for their future. That is not the case now.

2

More competition, less exclusivity.

In 2022 and 2024 there were zero then very few legit voter registration operations outside of THF and HAFA. This is beginning to not be the case as well.

VS.
Hispanic Engagement
Still the most unique and efficient path

High unique impact.

Hispanic voters remain under-engaged and represent the biggest persuadable opportunity.

Low competition.

Few organizations are investing at scale with a proven, culturally resonant approach.

Efficient and effective.

The optimal spend continues to deliver strong returns.

Hispanic ROI by the numbers

The biggest swing in American politics is reversing.

Hispanic voters are moving, but durable conservative engagement still has not caught up.

Hispanic Voters: Movement in Both Directions

Trump support among Hispanic voters (election results)
Trump favorability among Hispanic adults (polling)

Early signs of reversal

28%36%48%32%41%44%25%*2016Election2020Election2024ElectionOct. 2025Polling

*AP-NORC: Trump favorability among Hispanic adults fell from 44% before taking office to 25% in Oct. 2025.

Hispanic ROI by the numbers

The Biggest
ROI in Politics

  1. 1 Hispanics are the biggest swing group in American politics.
  2. 2 Another 1M+ votes were left on the table.
  3. 3 This is the highest-ROI outside spend in politics.
  4. 4 Another $18M in swing states could have changed elections.
Fact 1

Hispanics are the biggest swing group in the last 50 years.

2014 2024 +22 POINT SHIFT in 10 years
≈ 2.3M VOTES
IN 2024

No other major demographic moved this much,
this quickly, at this scale.

Hispanic ROI by the numbers

The Biggest
ROI in Politics

  1. 1 Hispanics are the biggest swing group in American politics.
  2. 2 Another 1M+ votes were left on the table.
  3. 3 This is the highest-ROI outside spend in politics.
  4. 4 Another $18M in swing states could have changed elections.
Fact 2

Another 7–10% and 1M+ votes were left on the table.

Observed / windfall path (actual)
Coalition-building path (what could have been)
2014 2020 2024
What We Did
(What Actually Happened)
≈2.3M Votes Shifted
  • Liberal messaging failure
  • Biden economy backlash
  • Trump-specific appeal
What We Should Have Done
(What Could Have Been)
1M+ Votes Left
on the Table
  • Education
  • Engagement
  • Relationships / coalition-building

Hispanic ROI by the numbers

The Biggest
ROI in Politics

  1. 1 Hispanics are the biggest swing group in American politics.
  2. 2 Another 1M+ votes were left on the table.
  3. 3 This is the highest-ROI outside spend in politics.
  4. 4 Another $18M in swing states could have changed elections.
Fact 3

10 years, 150+ control trials, and one stands out for 2026.

Most political spending is inefficient. Hispanic engagement, done right, is not.

Most outside spend
70%
shows no
measurable lift
What politics considers good ROI
$200
per vote
Hispanic engagement with the right program
$60–$90
per vote
BOTTOM
LINE

The right Hispanic program can deliver votes at a fraction of the cost politics usually accepts as strong performance.

2–3x
more efficient than a typical ‘good’ benchmark.
Source: National Hispanic Voter Survey, Bilingual America, 2014–2024 (150+ control trials and experiments).

Hispanic ROI by the numbers

The Biggest
ROI in Politics

  1. 1 Hispanics are the biggest swing group in American politics.
  2. 2 Another 1M+ votes were left on the table.
  3. 3 This is the highest-ROI outside spend in politics.
  4. 4 Another $18M in swing states could have changed elections.
Fact 4

Another $18M invested in Hispanic engagement could have changed many elections.

Estimated additional competitive elections that could have been affected with $18M more in targeted Hispanic outreach.

PRESIDENT SENATE HOUSE TOTAL
2020CYCLE 3(AZ, GA, WI) 1(Perdue) ~5–6seats ~9–10elections
2022CYCLE 0 1(NV) ~4–5seats ~5–6elections
2024CYCLE 0 3(MI, NV, WI) ~4seats ~7elections
Note: Estimates based on past Hispanic vote margins in competitive elections and modeled impact of increased engagement.
Sources: Catalyst Latino Data, Votamatic analysis, state election results.

Hispanic Messaging Framework

Presence Before Persuasion.

With numbers like this, we have a messenger problem before a message problem.

% who say that Republicans / conservatives __________ more than Democrats / liberals

Care about Hispanics

21%All Hispanics
14%Persuadables

Represent their values

23%All Hispanics
16%Persuadables

Show up in their communities

20%All Hispanics
9%Persuadables

Engage them in their community

13%All Hispanics
7%Persuadables

Hispanic Messaging Framework

Perspectives Before Policy.

What the research is telling us

The strongest early findings are not policy facts. They are perspectives that first resonated in focus groups, then held up in the survey, especially among persuadables.

Focus group quotes that got a “hear, hear” from everyone.

Perspective 1

“People from many Hispanic countries have seen politicians promise an immediate golden age and then attack anyone who points out that it is not happening.

I would trust Trump more if he said, ‘Fixing the economy is going to take time. We have to do the right things, and we have to stay with it until it works.’”

% who said this perspective resonates with them

49% Topline resonance 67% Persuadables
Perspective 2

“I don’t like the way things are right now, but Democrats support criminals over their victims and think boys should be allowed to compete against girls in sports and use girls’ bathrooms.

I can’t trust people with that kind of judgment to run the government.”

% who said this perspective resonates with them

51% Topline resonance 70% Persuadables

Hispanic Messaging Framework

Education And Issue Messaging Start With Cost Of Living.

Research read

Majority say they are worse off. Cost of living is the dominant pain point, and it beats immigration, jobs, and foreign policy in direct trade-offs. Keep the main thing the main thing: lower prices and family budgets.

Personal finances 54.1%

say their financial situation has gotten worse.

Greatest impact on family quality of life

Lower prices dominate the list.

Lower prices / cost of living60.0%
Good-paying jobs / higher wages18.9%
Preventing Iran nuclear weapon6.6%
ICE reform6.3%
Direct head-to-heads

The trade-offs are not close.

72.7%High prices / cost of living
vs.
18.6%ICE reform
69.5%High prices / cost of living
vs.
23.2%Preventing Iran nuclear weapon
45.5%Good-paying jobs
vs.
34.6%ICE reform

Heritage Action Impact Heirarchy

Tier 1

Committed

2026 commitment already in motion.

Arizona
'26 SenateNone
'28 SenateToss-upD-held
PresidentialTilt R
CD BattlegroundsAZ-01AZ-06
Ohio
'26 SenateToss-upR-held special
'28 SenateNone
PresidentialLikely R
CD BattlegroundsOH-01OH-09
Tier 2

On Deck

Next state to add as capacity and funding become available.

Michigan
'26 SenateToss-upOpen D-held
'28 SenateNone
PresidentialToss-up
CD BattlegroundsMI-07MI-10
TIER 1

Maximum
Strategic Impact

The Engines

The highest-density opportunities in the Atlas—large modeled lift, volatile statewide races, and meaningful congressional utility.

Arizona
Max Spend$18,771,000
Max Lift288,800
Ohio
Max Spend$3,268,800
Max Lift33,489
Michigan
Max Spend$3,537,600
Max Lift35,483

Best for moving the most votes in the most consequential geographies.

TIER 2

High Political
Coverage

The Core Battlegrounds

These states act as presidential pivot points, where Hispanic engagement can materially change statewide margins.

Wisconsin
Max Spend$5,071,800
Max Lift56,558
Pennsylvania
Max Spend$7,804,200
Max Lift81,452
Georgia
Max Spend$7,195,200
Max Lift77,255
North Carolina
Max Spend$5,977,800
Max Lift65,857

Best for protecting and expanding the national battleground map.

TIER 3

Strategic and
Defensive Plays

The Critical Margins

A mix of developing markets and smaller-universe states where targeted lift can still determine outcomes.

Nevada
Max Spend$2,785,500
Max Lift29,981
Texas
Max Spend$70,917,000
Max Lift752,151
New Hampshire
Max Spend$1,114,440
Max Lift12,197
Iowa + Maine + Alaska
Max SpendLift
IA$456,2404,908
ME$372,4203,995
AK$201,4202,218

Best for precision investments, defensive coverage, and future growth.

Hypothetical $3.087M Overall
Engagement Plan State Focus Arizona + Ohio

Minimum Investment Threshold
$450,000
Per State
Total Budget
$3,087,000
Setup / Planning
THF 501c3
HAFA 501c4
June
July – August
September – October
$190,000

Infrastructure +
Research Setup

Set up for a c3 nonpartisan, educational program and small amount for c4 survey and focus group.

$1,655,000

Relationship
Building + Education

A separate c3-compliant program to educate on issues in a non-partisan way.

$1,242,000

Targeted
Issue-Engagement

A separate c4-compliant program for targeted issue-engagement and driving political outcomes.

$150,000 c3 setup
$40,000 c4 research
Lift Goal 10+ pts
Measurement

c3-compliant survey questions in a difference-in-differences trial.

Modeled HAFA outcome 25,000 vote lift per state

Measured through a precinct-level election-results control trial.

Total Cost
by Entity
THF / c3
$1,805,000
58.47%
HAFA / c4
$1,282,000
41.53%
TOTAL
$3,087,000
100%

Confidential Notice

Compliance &
Independence Notice

This deck is Wick marketing material.

01

Proprietary Material

This presentation is proprietary Wick marketing material for informational discussion. It was not prepared by, at the direction of, or on behalf of The Heritage Foundation, Heritage Action for America, any candidate, campaign, political party committee, or their agents.

02

No Coordination

Nothing in this deck constitutes a coordinated plan, authorization, direction, solicitation, or instruction for any candidate-related communication, expenditure, or campaign activity.

03

Separate Legal Lanes

References to 501(c)(3) work are intended only to describe nonpartisan charitable, educational, research, and civic-engagement activity. References to 501(c)(4), 527, PAC, or political activity are illustrative only and must be conducted separately under applicable law.

04

Independent Review

Any organization considering activities described here must make its own independent decisions and obtain advice of counsel. This deck is not legal, tax, accounting, campaign-finance, or compliance advice.